Low-carbon hydrogen production grew slowly for years and was largely flat until recently. However, the trend has changed in the past couple of years, with production increasing to 0.84 million tpy in 2024. The low-carbon hydrogen production capacity is anticipated to reach 65.3 million tpy in high case scenario and 42 million tpy in low case scenario by 2030.
Driven by significant capacity additions in the Americas, green hydrogen is poised to dominate the production, with a share of 88.6% by 2030, overtaking blue hydrogen that held a share of 76.3% in 2024, reveals GlobalData, a leading intelligence and productivity platform.
GlobalData’s report, Low-Carbon Hydrogen Market Report, Update 2025 – Global Market Outlook, Trends, and Key Country Analysis, reveals that in 2024, global low-carbon hydrogen production capacity was 1.7 tpy, with green hydrogen occupying a share of 14.9%. Additional segments include purple hydrogen at 0.3%, turquoise hydrogen at 0.1%, and other categories at 11.3%. By 2030, blue hydrogen’s share is estimated to drop to 11.3%, while purple and turquoise remain steady at 0.1% each.
Attaurrahman Ojindaram Saibasan, Power Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The hydrogen market in the Americas has grown significantly over the last few decades, owing to federal and state-level initiatives in the US, significant efforts in Canada, and emerging policies in Mexico. Each country in the region has approached hydrogen development with varying levels of ambition and strategy, resulting in a dynamic and rapidly evolving market.”
The US is a pioneer in hydrogen policy, with federal initiatives dating back to the early 2000s. The Energy Policy Act of 2005 was one of the first major legislative steps, providing tax credits and loan guarantees to encourage hydrogen production and infrastructure development. This was followed by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, which allocated funds for hydrogen and fuel cell research and development, indicating a strong federal commitment to exploring hydrogen's potential.
The signing of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) in 2021 accelerated the pace of hydrogen-related policy development. This act significantly increased funding for clean hydrogen production, infrastructure, and research, paving the way for the US to enhance its hydrogen capabilities. Soon after, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022 introduced substantial tax credits and incentives specifically targeting clean hydrogen production and utilisation. In 2022, the US government released the National Clean Hydrogen Strategy and Roadmap to strengthen its hydrogen vision.
Saibasan added: “The roadmap is an important part of the US’ strategy to achieve carbon neutrality, with hydrogen playing a critical role in decarbonising sectors such as transportation and heavy industry. At the state level, initiatives are particularly strong in California, New York, and Massachusetts. California, for instance, has been a leader in promoting hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and developing refuelling infrastructure, complementing federal efforts.”
The Hydrogen Strategy for Canada, released in 2020, outlines the country’s vision for a robust hydrogen economy. The strategy emphasises clean hydrogen production, infrastructure development, and the potential for export, particularly to markets such as Europe and Asia, where demand for green hydrogen is growing. The Canadian federal government has continued to encourage hydrogen through financial commitments, most notably in Budget 2023, which allocated significant funding for hydrogen projects.
Saibasan continued: “Canada’s approach is characterised by strong federal leadership complemented by active provincial initiatives. Provinces such as British Columbia, Quebec, and Ontario are at the forefront of Canada’s hydrogen efforts. Each province is using its distinct regional advantages – such as British Columbia’s access to renewable energy or Quebec’s hydroelectric capacity – to drive hydrogen development. These provincial strategies are aligned with the national vision while also catering to local economic and environmental priorities, enabling a decentralised yet cohesive approach to hydrogen adoption.”
While Mexico’s hydrogen policy is still in its early stages, the country is exploring the sector’s potential, particularly in terms of utilising its resources and geographic location for hydrogen production and export. Saibasan concluded: “Though low-carbon hydrogen production is likely to witness rapid growth in the coming years, it will require scaling up to reduce costs, replacing high-carbon hydrogen with low-carbon hydrogen in current applications, and expanding the use of hydrogen to new applications.”