Wood Mackenzie: global hydrogen pipeline capacity plummets

Despite a record 12 million tpy of project capacity announcements in 1Q22, the global hydrogen pipeline slowed through the year with only 1 million tpy of new projects announced in 4Q22 – falling short of total capacity announcements in 2021 by 3 million tpy.

“2022 was marked by the energy crisis and a slew of policy announcements from the EU, US and UK supporting hydrogen production. Despite this, announcements slowed through the year as developers shifted their focus to de-risking the existing project pipeline” said Flor Lucia De la Cruz, Senior Research Analyst, Hydrogen and Emerging Technologies at Wood Mackenzie.

The slow-down in project announcements was counterbalanced by record electrolyser manufacturing announcements. A record 45 GW of renewable hydrogen electrolysers was announced in 4Q22, taking the total announced nameplate electrolyser manufacturing capacity to 106 GWe.

Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) chased the 360 GWe pipeline with a record 83 GWe in manufacturing announcements through 2022, according to Wood Mackenzie findings. With 45 GWe of that electrolyser manufacturing capacity announced in 4Q22, up 72% from the previous quarter. 41 GWe of the 4Q22 announcements were from gigafactories based in Africa.

De la Cruz said: “A year ago, electrolyser manufacturing capacity looked like a bottleneck. OEMs have responded so swiftly that there is a risk of significant manufacturing overcapacity by 2025, particularly if production projects fail to progress.”

“However, OEMs are ramping up manufacturing output slower than nameplate capacity given the additional time required to develop labour and skills as well as securing machinery and materials” De la Cruz added.

There was a lack of mega projects announced in 4Q22, but existing projects saw major progress. For instance, Shell’s 200 MWe ‘Holland Hydrogen I’ began construction in July 2022.

BP also made headlines in May 2022, after announcing its purchase of a majority stake in the US$70 billion Asian Renewable Energy Hub (AREH). In the US, the first mega-projects were announced including GHI’s ‘Hydrogen City’, which will add 3 million tpy to the pipeline, and SoCalGas’ ‘Angeles Link’, adding a further 20 GWe.

Read the article online at: https://www.globalhydrogenreview.com/hydrogen/24022023/wood-mackenzie-global-hydrogen-pipeline-capacity-plummets/